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    TitleAggregate Travel Demand Analysis :A Cross-National Comparison
    Issue No.21
    Publish Date2007-04
    Author NameMing-Hsiung Hsiao
    Abstract In traditional travel demand theory, aggregate travel demand is considered being greatly impacted by socioeconomic variables. Technically, modeling the impacts of these socioeconomic variables on aggregate travel demand is somewhat established practice as long as the data needed are all available. Unfortunately, such data usually come from government and it’s affiliated departments and are often insufficient for modeling task. On this account, based on the existent data in Taiwan government departments, this study makes efforts to expand and refine them into a more complete dataset, and then uses such a data set to implement the modeling task .The expanded data set is a chronologically(1992-2004)cross-national(nine nations including Taiwan) one containing primary data needed for modeling travel demands. With these data , then it starts building travel demand models and estimating the corresponding parameters. The estimation results show that the national income and telecommunications development are the two variables having the most significant effects on travel demands. The small positive income elasticity indicates that rail is more like necessity goods, whose demand tends to remain steady irrespective of income effect. Moreover, telecommunications development has negative effect on public modes: rail and air, but has positive effect on the private mode: car. This implies that the telecommunications advancement is possibly to encourage the use of private mode, while discourage that of public more; a result that transportation planners would least like to see.
    Keywordsderived demand;aggregate travel demand; telecommunications demand;income elasticity;cross-national data.
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