2019年4月

原住民選民的族群投票行為： 2012年山地原住民立委選舉之個案研究
Ethnic Voting Behavior of Taiwan's Indigenous Electorate: A Case Study of the 2012 Mountain Indigenous Legislators Election

研究論文 Article

包正豪, 周應龍
Cheng-hao Pao, Ying-lung Chou

165-193

原住民政治之一項重要特徵是「大族宰制政治資源」。長期以來，除在原住民立委席次為八席時代，有少數特例以外，平地原住民立委俱為阿美族包辦，而山地原住民立委則是泰雅、排灣兩族寡占。而此現象往往被歸因於「原住民選民有族群投票的傾向」。此一說法，從選舉結果來看，似無疑問。但遽以總體資料的投票結果推論個別選民的投票行為，恐犯區位推論之謬誤。有鑑於此，本研究以「2013原住民政治態度與行為調查」為分析資料來源，從個體行為層面出發來剖析原住民選民投票行為。模型證實山地原住民在2012年立委選舉的確有族群投票的傾向。此一研究發現讓我們了解原住民政治版圖中，候選人以家鄉與鄰近鄉鎮為基礎的「核心地盤」是族群投票行為的具象表徵。至於非屬排灣族、泰雅族與賽德克族的其他原住民選民，政黨認同則成為他們選擇是否投票的關鍵。

One of the characteristics of indigenous politics in Taiwan is that groups with a larger population usually control more political resources. It has always been the case that Taiwan's indigenous legislators usually come from the plain dwelling Amis and mountain dwelling Atayal and Paiwan. The explanation for this phenomenon is that indigenous people have a tendency toward ethnic voting. This argument is empirically based on election results. However, using aggregate level data to make inferences about individual voters' voting behavior might give rise to a problem of ecological fallacy.

Therefore, this study explores the indigenous people's voting behavior by using data from the 2013 Indigenous Political Behaviors and Attitudes Survey. The model indicates that mountain indigenous people had a tendency toward ethnic voting in the 2012 Legislators Election, and the pan-Atayal were more willing to vote for the candidates from their ethnic group than for candidates from the Paiwan. This phenomenon makes us understand that a given candidate has an "inner territory" which consists of his/her hometown and nearby townships, and this is one substantial feature of ethnic voting behavior for indigenous electoral politics. For other indigenous voters who are neither Paiwan nor pan-Atayal, party identification is the key factor having impact on their voting participation.

原住民, 投票抉擇, 族群投票
indigenous people, voting choice, ethnic voting

政治學, 族群研究
Political Science, Ethnic Studies

https://doi.org/10.7014/SRMA.2019040004

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