2008年4月

台灣人口資料之編製與調整：1905－1943與1951－1997
Estimation and Adjustment of Population Data for Taiwan: 1905-1943 and 1951-1997

研究論文 Article

楊靜利, 李大正
Ching-Li Yang, Ta-Cheng Li

119-154

本文蒐集日據時期以來的各種人口統計資料報告，檢視其缺漏情形，並建立完整的生育與死亡人口資料。我們設定的「完整」條件為：可以據以取得單一年齡組生育率至49歲以及單一年齡組死亡率至100歲以上。主要的研究成果包括：（1）以日本0歲死亡率的變化趨勢，調整台灣1951－1994年之0歲死亡人數；（2）假設生育率年齡之分布呈咖瑪（Gamma）函數，以估計1905－1943年15－49歲之單一年齡組生育率；（3）以立方曲線法（cubic spline）增修1951－1997年單一年齡死亡數至100歲；（4）以人口倒推方式計算1905－1943年間非普查年之0－100歲人口數，以邏輯模型（logistic model）進行配適年齡別死亡率，以估計1951－1991年高齡組之單一年齡人口數至100歲以上。

This paper intends to estimate the imcomplete data and adjust the mistake figures of Taiwan’s population statistics for the periods from 1905 to 1943 and 1951 to 1997. We combine various data sources that were administrated by the Japanese colonial authority and the ROC government, to create birth, death and population counts by single-year age group up to 100 years old and above. The main achievements are follows: (1) Employing the time series of Japanese infant (0-1years) mortality rates to adjust the Taiwan's death counts for 0-1 years from 1951-1994. (2) Applying the age pattern of age-specific fertility rates to a Gamma function to estimate the single year age-specific fertility rates for the period of 1904 to 1943. (3) Using cubic splines fitted to the cumulative distribution of deaths to get single year age-specific death counts up to 100 years old and above. (4) Using backward population projections to estimate the single year age-specific population counts for the non-census years during 1905-1943,and applying age-specific mortality rates to a logistic function to estimate the higher aged mortality rates for the period of 1951-1991.

台灣人口資料, 戶籍人口, 普查人口, 生育率, 死亡率
Taiwan's population statistics, registered population, census population, fertility mortality,

社會學
Sociology

https://doi.org/10.7014/SRMA.2008040004

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