1993年12月

選舉競爭與政治分歧結構的變遷：國民黨與民進黨勢力的消長
Electoral Competitions and the Change in Cleavage Structures: The Persistence of Electoral Bases of the KMT and the DPP

研究論文 Research Article

徐火炎
Huoyan Shyu

37-74

本文從分析解嚴前後選民的黨派投票行爲，來看國民黨與民進黨勢力的消長，亦即從「政黨與選民」的關係來分析政黨競爭與臺灣政治分歧結構的改變。世界上幾乎所有實施威權統治的政黨，在民主轉型中的大選，都不能獲得選民的支持而下臺，但臺灣的國民黨卻是少數的一個例外。本文認爲要了解威權統治臺灣長達三十多年的國民黨，所以能夠在民主轉型過程中維持主導的統治地位，必須從分析政黨與選民之間的關係、以及政黨所代表與動員的政治分歧基礎著手。透過分析國民黨與民進黨支持選民的社會及心理分歧，不僅可以了解臺灣民主轉型與競爭性政黨政治萌芽的過程，也可以觀察臺灣解嚴前後政治分歧結構的持續與轉變情形。本文研究發現，國民黨與民進黨的支持選民羣體中，持續而且顯著的主要分歧乃是省籍與民主政治價值的差異。這發現有助於我們了解，爲什麼國民黨與民進黨在解嚴前後的政爭焦點，都與省籍情結及民主改革糾葛具有密不可分的關係。

Why there is no stunning election in Taiwan's democratic tran­sition? What makes the KMT an exceptional case while most ruling parties of the authoritarian regimes in the world lost elections in their democratization process? To answer these questions, this essay looks at the change and persistence of cleavage structures that divide the elec­toral bases of the ruling KMT and of the major opposition party, the DPP, with an attempt to bridge the "macro" and "micro" gaps. His­torically the successful land reform in the early 1950s not only secured the KMT's rule but deflated the potential opposition forces. However, along with prolonged economic growth, an increasing mass demands for democratic reforms gradually gave birth to an organized opposition, the forming of the DPP in 1986. Finally, this trend of liberalizing change culminated in 1987 that witnessed the lifting of martial law and marked the opening of Taiwan's democratization. An analysis of electoral survey data collected between 1983 and 1992 shows that ethnicity and democratic values are the major dividing lines between the KMT's and the DPP's supporters. The effect of ethnic cleavage on party alignment is found persistent, as Mainlanders are identified to disproportionately vote for the KMT and Taiwanese to the DPP. The authoritarian-democratic value cleavage is also a key variable in predicting opposition voting, as voters with stronger democratic val­ues are shown more likely to cast the DPP vote.  The changing values is also functioning as an important leverage for the persistent effect of ethnic cleavage on mass party alignment. In perspective, a two-party dominant system is taking shape in Taiwan's post-authoritarian elec­tions in which the persistence and changes in cleavage structures is thus manifested.

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