2005年10月

台灣地區抽樣調查各種母體定義、抽樣底冊和涵蓋率的比較
The Sampling Frames and Coverage Rates of Different Types of Survey Populations in Taiwan

研究論文 Article

洪永泰
Yung-Tai Hung

9-44

常住人口和戶籍登記人口是經常被台灣地區各種抽樣調查定義為母體的兩種典型，其中常住人口通常以戶口普查為依據，本文檢視這兩個母體資料做為黃金標準的恰當性，並以2001年國民健康訪問調查（NHIS）、2001年台灣選舉與民主化調查（TEDS）和一般採用電話訪問的民意調查來探討母體定義、抽樣底冊、和涵蓋率的一些問題。結果證實戶口普查或是戶藉資料都不能真實反映台灣地區的人口狀況，主要是受到大量移居大陸人口和資料蒐集與維護品質的影響。一般常見的電話調查涵蓋率最低，影響資料品質因素最多，樣本結構偏離母體最嚴重。本文也建議以電話訪問所做的民意調查必須先針對涵蓋率的缺失做適當的補救再進行母體的推論工作。

The census or population de facto and the household registration records are the two target population types commonly used by survey investigators in Taiwan. This article examines the adequacy of their roles as the golden standards of population parameters. The study uses data from The 2001 National Health Interview Survey, The 2001 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Studies, and some typical telephone surveys to compare sampling frames and coverage rates for each of the target populations. The results show that neither census data nor household registration records can reflect the true population status in Taiwan. One of the prime reasons is the large quantity of Taiwanese people living in mainland China for various reasons but the matter is not properly handled by the census and household registration authorities . Other causes such as methods of data collection for the census and quality of data maintenance of household registration records all contribute to the shortcomings of the correct population counts in Taiwan. On the other hand , telephone surveys tend to have the lowest coverage rates among all types of surveys. Their demographic compositions of sample data also deviate severely from the target population. The study suggests that telephone surveys take necessary remedy measures before making inferences.

戶口普查, 戶籍資料, NHIS, TEDS, 電話調查, 抽樣底冊, 涵蓋率
Census, Household Registration Records, NHIS, TEDS, Telephone Survey, Sampling Frame, Coverage Rate

社會學
Sociology

https://doi.org/10.7014/SRMA.2005100001

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