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中英文篇名/Title | 臺灣信用政策與利率政策的影響效果 The Effect of Credit Policy and Interest Rate in Taiwan |
論文屬性/Type | 研究論文 Research Article |
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摘要/Abstract | 本文根據台灣中央銀行的出版品與新聞稿,整理1991~2019年間央行實施的各種信用數量工具,編製成信用政策變動指數。由於央行同時運用兩種政策因應各種經濟衝擊,因此信用政策與政策利率存在同向調整的關係。進而,本文應用敘述認定方法 (narrative identification strategy) 認定信用政策衝擊,並檢視調整信用政策與利率政策對總體經濟的影響效果。本文發現,直接管控銀行信用數量的信用政策影響銀行放款的速度較調整利率為快,且信用政策與利率政策對產出皆有顯著影響,但只有利率政策能影響物價,信用政策對物價無顯著影響。 We document the credit policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and construct a credit policy change index spanning from 1991 to 2019. We find that the Bank employed various credit policy tools and changed the policy interest rate in response to economy shocks over the past 30 years. By employing a narrative identification strategy, we identify credit policy shocks which are unrelated to the business or financial cycle and compare impacts of credit policy to those of changes in the interest rate. Our analysis reveals that tighter credit policies can strongly depress bank lending, and with a much shorter lag than increases in interest rate. Additionally, changes in both credit policy and interest rate have a significantly impact on output, although only changes in the interest rate have a significantly negative impact on the consumer price index. |
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