1992年11月

民主轉型過程中政黨的重組：臺灣地區選民的民主價值取向丶政黨偏好與黨派投票改變之研究
Party Realignment in a Democratic Transition: A Study of Changes in Democratic Values, Party Preferences and Vote-Choices among Taiwanese Voters

研究論文 Research Article

徐火炎
Huoyan Shyu

213-263

本文認爲要了解臺灣在解除戒嚴前後的政治民主化轉型，除了必須考慮到總體層次的經社發展與變遷結果丶國內外的有利環境條件外，更重要的是不能偏廢或忽略生活在轉型過程中選民大衆的態度丶價值與行爲等個體層次上的改變。作者檢視解嚴前後歷次選舉投票結果的政黨得票比率之變化，發現這段期間國民黨與民進黨在選舉競爭的勢力消長，呈現出一種「持續性的政黨重組」現象。這種政黨重組的趨勢與解嚴前後的民主化過程，具有相合致的同步發展。本文利用民國72年至78年之間三次增額立委選舉與80年第二屆國代選舉的全省性調查資料，來分析選民在解嚴前後的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨脈投票行爲之改變。分析的結果，一方面發現解嚴前後的持續性政黨重組現象，主要是中立的選民逐漸具有黨派性的一種變遷結果，另方面也發現選民的民主價值取向會影響他們對政黨的偏好，而且兩者也決定了選民的黨派投票。個體層次上選民的民主價值取向、政黨偏好與黨派投票行爲之改變，可以視爲是推動臺灣政治在總體層次上、走向競爭性政黨政治與民主化發展的重要驅策力量。

This paper argues that Taiwan's democratic transition by lifting martial law is hardly explained by looking only at its preconditions of socio-economic changes at the macro level without exploring those changes in individual attitudes, values and behaviors of the mass at the micro level. Electoral changes in popular vote-share of political par­ties in the 1980s is identified as a sectilar trend of party realignment, a synchronized mass political change as Taiwan was taking off economi­cally. A upward trend of growing democratic values as well as changes in partisan preference toward the opposition, the DPP, is analyzed to signify the party alignment found in the 1980s. Voters' democratic val­ues are thus found highly correlated with their partisan preferences, and both are contributing to predict partisan vote-choices in the elections. It is found that Taiwan's secular party realignment trend occurred in the 1980s is neither of the so-called "dealignment-realignment" process nor of a "switching of party identification" phenomenon. It is simply a trend of electoral change in that a significant portion of non-partisan voters has become more partisan, which is a result of increasing intensified party competition and electoral mobilization in the period of Taiwan's democratic transition. These changes in individual democratic values, party preferences and partisan vote-choices are asserted to have been associated and interacting with Taiwan's democratic transition.

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