Reality and Implications of ECFA
ECFA以架構協議為本，加上早收清單先行的逐步到位洽簽模式，的確為兩岸的制度 安排帶來彈性，卻也導致ECFA現階段很難向WTO完成正式通報的困境。ECFA定義上 仍屬於「兩岸事務」，國際規範部分則依然懸而未決。
Adjunct Assistant Professor, The Center for Contempory China, National Tsing Hua University
China has been the primary trading partner with Taiwan since 2000, suggesting that, from an economic perspective, ECFA is the most significant agreement Taiwan has signed. However, China has never abandoned attempts to annex Taiwan, suggesting that it might be not appropriate to evaluate the influence of ECFA purely from an economic perspective. From the viewpoint of economic strategy, the worst case scenario would be a situation in which Taiwan still unable to sign FTAs with its major trading partners after signing ECFA. ECFA is a “Framework Agreement” plus “Early Harvest Program” with a list of limited products to liberalize. This implies that the economic impacts of ECFA will depend on the outcomes of the subsequent negotiations, in which is difficult because Taiwan has banned more than 2,200 Chinese agricultural and industrial items from importing. Besides, Taiwan might find it difficult to comply fully with the WTO rules imposed on developed members engaging in regional trade agreements, particularly the criteria of “substantially all the trade” (SAT) in products originating in the partner’s territory since there is no “plan and schedule” in the legal text of ECFA.
Key words: ECFA, WTO, FTA, Enabling Clause, notification