點擊次數:33; 全文下載次數:11;
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中英文篇名/Title | 臺灣信用政策與利率政策的影響效果 The Effect of Credit Policy and Interest Rate in Taiwan |
論文屬性/Type | 研究論文 Research Article |
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摘要/Abstract | 本文根據臺灣中央銀行的出版品與新聞稿,整理1991–2019年間央行實施的各種信用數量工具,編製成信用政策變動指數。資料顯示,央行的信用政策與政策利率存在同向調整的關係,反映央行同時運用兩種政策,以因應各種經濟衝擊。進而,本文應用敘述認定方法(narrative identification strategy)認定信用政策衝擊,並檢視調整信用政策與利率政策對總體經濟的影響效果。本文發現,直接管控銀行信用數量的信用政策影響銀行放款的速度較調整利率為快,且信用政策與利率政策對產出皆有顯著影響,但只有利率政策能影響物價,信用政策對物價無顯著影響。 This study examines the credit policies implemented by the Central Bank of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and constructs a credit policy change index covering 1991 to 2019. We find that the Bank employed various credit policy tools and adjusted policy interest rates in response to economic shocks over the past 30 years. Using a narrative identification strategy, we identify credit policy shocks that are unrelated to the business or financial cycle and compare the effects of credit policy to those of interest rate changes. Our analysis reveals that tighter credit policies strongly reduce bank lending, with a much shorter lag than inter-est rate increases. Furthermore, changes in both credit policy and interest rates significantly affect output, but only interest rate changes have a significantly negative impact on the consumer price index. |
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