1991年11月

政黨認同與投票抉擇：台灣地區選民的政黨印象、偏好與黨派投票行為之分析
Party Identification and the Vote Choice: An Analysis of Electorate's Party Images, Partisan Preferences and Voting Behavior In Taiwan

研究論文 Research Article

徐火炎
Huoyan Shyu

1-57

本文旨在探討台灣地區選民對兩大政黨所持的印象與偏好之內涵，進而檢視選民這種對政黨的心理傾向與黨派投票行爲之間的關係。首先，作者檢討歐美有關政黨認同的研究文獻及測量上的爭論，然後指出政黨認同概念適用到台灣時，必需考慮到不同制度與文化上的因素。其次，作者以民國七十八年增額立法委員選舉的一筆全省抽樣調查資料爲主，進行分析選民對政黨印象與偏好。作者研究發現：（1）選民對兩黨的印象與偏好，呈現出兩極化傾向的現象，符合政黨認同單一面向的「敵對性假設」；（2）選民對政黨的印象及偏好與是否加入國民黨之間具有顯著的正相關關係。第三，作者以選民對政黨的印象及偏好丶是否加入國民黨與選民的個人及社會屬性變項作比較分析，檢定究竟何者對選民的黨派投票抉擇行爲較具解釋效果。分析結果發現：（1）選民對政黨的心理傾向，包括政黨印象與偏好等，對黨派投票抉擇具有直接而顯著的影響關係；（2）選民是否加入國民黨，雖然對解釋黨派投票仍具有貢獻，但顯然不能與政黨印象與偏好的變項相比。本文結論指出，開放的政黨政治在台灣雖然剛起步，但選民巳具黨派的心理傾向，而且此種政黨的心理傾向可以有效的解釋選民的黨派投票抉擇。可見台灣的選民已具政黨認同，然而仍有待進一步長期的追蹤研究，但在測量與概念化問題上，尤須先加以解決；本文的分析對研究政黨認同可以提供一個討論的開始。

This paper attempts to explore electorate's images and preferences toward two major parties in Taiwan, which are examined and related to partisan vote-choice. Based on analyziug an island-wide survey data set, Voters' party images and partisau preferences are found consistent with the hostility hypothesis that one who likes the KMT most tends to strongly dislike the DPP, and vice versa.  Electorate's party images and preferences are shown to be better predictors than personal and socio-demographic attributes in explaining voters' partisan vote-choice. Compared to parti­san attitudes and/or party images, party membership as an indicator of partisanship is a relatively awkward predictor for partisan vote-choice. This paper concludes that in Taiwan voter's psychological attach­ment to a party as measured in terms of party images and preferences is able to effectively explain voter's partisan vote-choice. However, it needs more empirical studies to confirm as well as an adequate measurement to be developed to tap voter's party identification. The author believes that those findings and diseussions addressed in this paper would serve a useful guide for further research on party identification and voting behavior.

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