1995年9月

「量入為出」與「量出為入」：政府歲入與歲出之因果關係分析
Tax-Then-Spend or Spend-Then-Tax: An Analysis of Causality between Public Spending and Revenues

研究論文 Research Article

蘇彩足
Tsai-tsu Su

207-222

本文應用「葛蘭吉直接測試法 ｣，檢證 1961 至 1992 會計年度臺灣地區政府歲入與歲出之間的因果關係。分析結果顯示，歲入與總歲出二者之間，具有「量入爲出 ｣ 的關係，即總支出規模的變動，受歲入額度變動影響甚大，尤其是非國防支出中的「一般政務 ｣ 支出與「教育科學文化 ｣ 支出部分，遵循「量入爲出 ｣原則的特徵最爲明顯。國防支出則不受此一原則的拘束。此外，債務支出與其他政事別支出不同，顯現「量出爲入 ｣ 的傾向。這種「歲入多寡，決定總歲出規模 ｣ 的因果關係若持續不變，則欲以增稅來降低我國政府預算赤字的作法，可能只會引起政府預算規模的擴張，對預算赤字的控制，助益不大。

This paper uses the direct Granger test to examine the intertem­poral relationships between public spending and revenues in Taiwan for fiscal years 1961-1992. Revenues are found to Granger-cause spending outcomes, with the strongest link occurring in the expenditures for gen­eral administration, and for education, science, and culture. The reverse causal relationship, spend-then-tax, finds little empirical support, with the exception of obligations Granger-causing revenue outcomes. The les­son learned from past data thus appears to be that raising taxes is more likely to result in more government spending than to reduce the size of budget deficit.

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