2004年12月

台灣樂透彩券之價格需求彈性：隨機選號與自覺選號下之估計
The Price Elasticity of Demand for Taiwan's Lottery Tickets: The Estimation under Random Selection and Conscious Selection

研究論文 Research Article

林玫吟, 王智賢
Mei-yin Lin, Jue-shyan Wang

487-503

本文以樂透公益彩券爲主題，分析台灣民眾的購券行爲。首先，我們以限制應變數模型來估計累積頭彩機率函數，發現台灣民眾選號行爲是屬於自覺性的選擇而非隨機性的選擇，而此將易提高累積頭彩的機率，降低報酬預期價值。其次，我們利用有效價格模型估計彩券的需求函數，實證結果顯示台灣公益彩券無論是隨機性的選號或自覺性的選號，價格需求彈性均遠大於1，代表目前彩券有效價格過高，應降低售價或徵收率才可提高彩券收入。

We analyze the demand for Taiwan's lottery tickets during the first 186 lottery drawings. Using a limited dependent variable model to esti­mate the rollover probability function, we find the players select numbers consciously, not randomly. This raises the rollover probability of the grand prize and reduces the expected value of return. Moreover, we employ the effective price to estimate the demand for lottery tickets. The result shows the price elasticity is larger than 1, implying the revenue raised from the lottery will be increased by reducing the selling price and the take-out rate.

隨機選號, 自覺選號, 彩券
conscious selection, random selection, lottery

經濟學
Economics

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