2012年6月

菲律賓2010年總統大選評析
A Study of the 2010 Presidential Election in the Philippines

翁俊桔, 顧長永
Chun-Chieh Weng , Samuel C. Y. Ku

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稻江科技暨管理學院公共事務管理學系助理教授、國立中山大學中國與亞太區域研究所教授兼所長
菲律賓2010年全國大選已於該年5月順利落幕，雖然整起活動仍舊沿襲「候選人多」、「參選政黨多」、「暴力事件多」和「賄選傳聞多」的型態，不過由於傷亡人數最少、參與選民最多，以及首度採用「電子投票系統」而備受關注。
菲國雖素有「亞洲民主櫥窗」（showcase of democracy in Asia）之譽，但是其選舉活動因舞弊充斥而廣受苛責。為深究該國總統選舉的始末，本文擬援用日本學者粕谷祐子（Yuko Kasuya）教授的「總統花車模式」（the Presidential Bandwagon framework）來剖析本次大選選情，以探討該國總統大選的爭議和運作邏輯。

關鍵詞：菲律賓、亞洲民主櫥窗、2010年總統大選、總統花車模式、
潛規則
Assistant Professor, Department of Public Affairs Management, Toko University & Professor and Director, Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies, National Sun Yat-sen University
The most recent presidential election in the Philippines was successfully accomplished in May of 2010. Similar to previous presidential elections in the Philippines, the 2010 contest was characterized by the participation of many candidates vying for the position, the involvement of numerous political parties, as well as frequent rallies, plentiful violence, and widespread allegations of vote-buying. This election is, however, credited with several improvements and historical advances, including the least number of casualties, the highest voter turnout, peaceful campaign rallies, and the groundbreaking use of an electronic voting system. This election has, as a result of these achievements, generated a lot of attention from scholars and political observers around the world.
In spite of its reputation as “the showcase of democracy in Asia”, the election process in the Philippines has been a consistent target of criticism since the early 1970s. In order to have a better understanding of the 2010 Philippine presidential election, this article utilizes the Japanese scholar Yuko Kasuya’s “presidential bandwagon framework model” to argue that this election, allowing for the noted improvements, still demonstrates the cited bandwagon framework criteria found in the model. In addition, this article will examine several of the 2010 election-related disputes and their significance.

Key words: The Philippines, the showcase of democracy in Asia, the 2010 President elections, presidential bandwagon framework, hidden rules

【This paper is written in Chinese. Read the Chinese Abstract.】