2007年12月

準－兩位主要候選人選情下之民調準確度評量：2000年台灣總統選舉之實證
Poll Accuracy Measures in a Quasi-Two-Way Election: An Emprirical Assessment of Taiwan's 2000 Presidential Election

研究論文 Research Article

蘇建卅, Mandy Sha
Chien-chou Su, Mandy Sha

505-527

本研究主要是透過評量2000年台灣總統選舉民調準確度，探討如何在不同的選情採用不同的評量方法。從2000年台灣總統選舉結果顯示，該選舉的選情是介於兩位主要候選人與三位主要候選人的「準－兩位主要候選人｣，然而是否不同的選情應該採用不同的民調準確度評量計算方法？本研究修改Mitofsky and  Traugott's用以評量1996、2000與2004美國總統選舉（兩位主要候選人）民調表現的方法，提出一套比較合理適用於評量2000年台灣總統選舉民調的方法。本研究除了採用修正的方法分析選舉民調表現外，也進一步透過實證探討影響民調準確度差異的因子。

There is little systematic study on the question of how poll accuracy should be measured. Should different measures be adopted in different election situations? Expanding upon Mitofsky and Traugott's assessment of the 1996, 2000 and 2004 U.S. pre-election polls, this paper assesses dem­ocratic Taiwan's polls in its second direct presidential election in 2000. In this paper, we first discuss the feasibility of accuracy measures in differ­ent election situation, and then focus on designing a suitable poll accu­racy measurement for Taiwan's 2000, a quasi-two-way election. Next, we adopt the proposed accuracy measurement as a response to evaluate the Taiwanese poll performance. Finally, we analyze the multitude of fac­tors that influence polling accuracy by using the proposed and modified measures to compare the effects of eight factors.

民調準確度評量, 民調表現, 準－兩位主要候選人選情
poll accuracy measure, poll performance, quasi-two-way election

政治學
Political Science

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