2014 / March

民主和平論與非民主和平論之經驗檢證：政治制度相似性的關鍵作用
An Empirical Analysis of the Democratic Peace and Non-democratic Peace Theses: The Critical Effects of Political Institutional Similarity

研究論文 Research Article

張文揚
Wen-yang Chang

1-39

自「民主國家之間比較不會發生戰爭」的論述經由理論與實證研究確認以來，民主和平論受到西方國際關係學界，特別是衝突研究社群以及政策實踐者的歡迎，並成為西方國家外交政策的一部分。然而，自1990年代中期以來，「非民主國家之間也有可能和平」的說法也獲得學者驗證，這讓衝突研究社群在探討政治制度與軍事衝突的連結上，無法統一看法與提供政策建議。本文認為，過去對「政治體制—軍事衝突」的研究，過度強調與比較民主和非民主政體的優劣以及這些體制特徵對於國際和平的影響，進而忽略了國內政治制度本身如何直接影響國際關係。本文主張，由於制度相似性提供區別敵我、加強溝通以及傳遞訊息的作用，讓制度類似的國家面臨軍事衝突前，提高解決衝突的效率以避免外交危機升級或國際摩擦，並進一步解釋為何民主國家之間與非民主國家之間發生衝突的機率不高。利用1950年到2001年的數據資料，本文透過實證的方式確認這個關係。

The popularity of the democratic peace theory—democracies rarely fight against each other—is derived from its theoretical and empirical support. However, since the 1990s the “dictatorial peace” argument, proposing that nondemocracies are also less likely to engage in militarized disputes with each other, has emerged. Failing to provide a unified approach to explain why both regime types account for peace prevents us from advancing a unified explanation for the polity-conflict nexus. This paper proposes that it is the institutional characteristics, rather than regime characteristics, that determine the likelihood of conflict onset among institutionally similar states in political terms. Institutional similarity helps states identify friends or adversaries, provides information for behavior prediction, and reduces communication costs. Using the data of the period spanning 1950–2001, this paper confirms that political institutional similarity reduces the incidence of conflict.

民主和平, 非民主和平, 制度相似性, 制度研究
democratic peace, non-democratic peace, institutional similarity, institutional studies

政治學
Political Science

Abstract full PDF text