2016年12月

中國大陸基層治理與社區維權：零膨脹負二項計數模型之分析 
An Exploration of Local Governance and Residents Protesting within Communities in China: An Application of the Zero-inflated Negative Binomial Model

研究論文 Research Article

郭銘峰, 王鼎銘, 丁太平
Ming-feng Kuo, Ding-ming Wang, Tai-ping Ding

581-622

自中國大陸改革開放以來，經濟的快速發展不僅改善民眾的生活條件，連帶的群眾自我及維權意識也逐漸上升。而社區作為中國大陸最基層的治理結構，層出不窮的社區維權事件便開始成為研究大陸社會發展不可迴避的課題。為試圖釐清大陸民眾參與這類集體行動的決策思維，本文透過中國綜合社會調查（CGSS）的全國性面訪資料，輔以零膨脹負二項計數模型的分析，得出幾點重要結論：1.居民在所屬社區中是否擁有組織化（業委會）的依託，顯著影響是否參與這類社區維權；2.中國特殊的央地差序政府信任態度，會深化居民參與維權的強度（次數）表現。

Since China enacted its reform and opening policy, rapid economic growth has not only improved living standards, but also strengthened the consciousness of citizenship and civil rights. “Community” for instance, as the essential unit of governance and policy operation under the current Chinese administrative system, has encountered enormous protests in the past few years. To understand the reasons for Chinese people participating in this type of collective community protest, we explore data collected from the China General Social Survey (CGSS) by analyzing the zero-inflated negative binomial model. The result shows that whether there is an organized property management agency (業委會) in the community has a significant impact on the occurrence of protests. Moreover, the ‘hierarchical government trust’ between central and local governments increases participation in such protests.

中國大陸, 社區治理, 差序信任, 維權活動, 零膨脹負二項計數模型
China, communities governance, hierarchical government trust, rights protection demonstrations, zero-inflated negative binomial model

政治學
Political Science

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