1988年11月

調節生育與國際移民：未來台灣人口變遷的兩個關鍵問題
The Effects of Fertility Adjustment and International Migration on the Future Populations in Taiwan

研究論文 Research Article

涂肇慶, 陳寬政
Edward Tu, Kuanjeng Chen

77-98

本文根據穩定人口模型的討論，透過人口推計的方法說明台灣地區的人口成長不但已經趨向於緩和，而且生育率長期大幅下跌已經引進人口衰退的因素。但是衰退的因素固然已經介入台灣地區的人口成長，在本世紀結束以前台灣地區仍需容納相當數量的成長，我們稱之爲人口動能，係因過去的人口成長透過再生程序而減量複製的結果。台灣地區的生育率已遠低於替換水準，如果此一生育水準長期維持不變，則人口將自公元二Ｏ三五年前後開始迅速縮減，損失幅度大小視生育調節的努力多少而定。如果立即調節生育使達到替換水準，則台灣人口將能維繫過去七丶八十年來的成長趨勢，成長率逐漸縮小以至於達成「靜態」，而終點人口爲三千三百萬人上下，人口的年齡組成也不會產生扭曲的現象。如果生育率繼續下跌，或雖不下跌卻停留於替換水準以下，則人口縮減及老化將爲廿一世紀台灣地區人口變遷的主要特徵，縮減及老化的幅度與時機視生育率下跌的型態而定。生育率停留在替換水準以下越久則未來的人口衰退幅度越大，人口老化的程度也越大。本文也分析國際移民對未來台灣人口變遷的影響，指出在人口衰退的考慮下，老年人口外移或勞動力移入均不失爲緩和人口老化，並且維繫「靜態」發展的有效辦法。

Based on the theory of stable population, this paper explores the possible effects of fertility adjustment and international migration on the future popu­lation. Given the parameters of fertility adjustment and international migra­tion, the renewal process built into the population projection reverals large population momentum in Taiwan. The population is expected to continue growing well into the first quarter of the 21st century, even though the fertil­ity is already under the replacement level. The structure and size of the future population depends on the efforts of fertility adjustment. Faster recov­ery from under-replacement produces larger size but less distorted structure. The longer the population stays under-replaced, the larger the fluctuation in size and the distortion in structure are expected. The analysis of interna­tional migration shows that migration of younger generation (aged 20 and below) tends to aggravate the growth (or loss) of population disproportional­ly. The migration of people aged 50 and over produces only proportional effect. It is suggested that to lessen the population aging and the socio­economic problems associated, either the replacement fertility or the emigra­tion of elderly should be encouraged.

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