1988年11月

中國大陸的人口政策：固定年出生數的政策模型之提出
China's Population Policy: A Model of a Constant Stream of Births

研究論文 Research Article

李少民
Shaomin Li

99-120

中國大陸目前所實行之一胎化人口政策，正受到政治經濟改革之衝擊。自從一九七九年開始改革以來，大陸在經濟上出現私人經濟，政治上中共對公民的控制亦逐漸放鬆，這使得個人自由程度有所增加。而個人自由之擴大，使一胎化政策開始失效。一方面，若中共政府對人口增長不加任何控制，則下個世紀大陸人口將超過十五億；另一方面，中共若強力實施一胎化，則需極大地限制個人自由，而這又與其改革南轅北轍。本文根據數理人口學中對年輪與時期生育率之分析，提出固定年出生數之人口政策，即可使人口總量得到控制，又可使個人在生育選擇上有較大的自由。

The current population policy of China, one child per family, is facing considerable challenges brought by the socioeconomic reforms. The biggest challenge is the greater individual freedom established by the reforms which provide more social choices and economic alternatives. On the one hand, if unchecked, China's population will likely exceed 1.5 billion in the next cen­tury. On the other hand, a stringent birth control policy such as the policy of one child per family imposes a great restriction on individual's fertility choice. Is it possible to formulate a population policy in such a way that it can control the population growth within a bolerable limit, while giving more rein to the couple regarding their fertility preference? This is the question the author tries to answer in this article. Based on cohort-period fertility analy­sis, the author proposes a policy of a constant stream of births which ensures a moderate growth rate and a smooth age structrue, while enabling each couple to have at least two children.

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