1999 / September

菸需、菸稅與反菸：實證文獻回顧與臺灣個案
Cigarette Demand, Cigarette Taxation, and Anti-Smoking: Review of Empirical Literature and the Case of Taiwan

研究論文 Research Article

徐茂炫, 謝啓瑞
Mau-shan Shi, Chee-ruey Hsieh

301-334

本文回顧健康經濟文獻中有關香菸消費的實證研究，然後在美國經驗的對照下，淺析我國香菸消費之今昔與特色。其目地除希望有助於經濟學界對「癮性」商品消費之瞭解與興趣外，更期有助於我國未來有關吸菸課題之研究與相關政策之釐訂。綜觀國外實證文獻可知，香菸價格對香菸消費量有顯著負影響，最常見的價格彈性估計範圍約在－0.3至－0.5之間。同時，文獻上對香菸價格彈性有三個較具共識的發現：一、長期彈性大於短期彈性；二、吸菸率價格彈性大過吸菸量的價格彈性；三、靑少年的價格彈性較成人高。此無異表示，透過菸稅提高的方式，可有效減少香菸消費，同時在長期及對靑少年可發揮更大效果。最後，文中亦模擬台灣提高菸稅的影響。結果指出，在香菸需求價格彈性爲一0.6的情況下，香菸價格上升10％，台灣的總香菸消費量將減少約 1.13 億包，平均每人 (15歲以上人口）減少約 7 包。另外，政府的香菸稅收可因此增加約 37 憶元，此金額約相當於 1995 年香菸公賣利益的 16%。

This paper analyzes the effect of cigarette taxation on cigarette consumption. Based on existing empirical literature and the experiences of California, this paper concludes that raising taxes on cigarettes is an effective way to reduce cigarette consumption, while still being financial­ly beneficial to the government. The consensus estimates of price elasticity of cigarette demand suggest that a 10 percent increase in cigarette prices causes a decrease in cigarette consumption of 3 percent to 5 percent. Also, we simulate the effect of increasing cigarette excise taxes in Taiwan. The result shows that sales of cigarettes will be reduced annually by 113 million packs (or 6.95 packs per adult) owing to an additional NT$ 2.88 tax increase per pack, with the annual govern­ment revenue increasing NT$ 3.7 billion.

「癮性」商品, 香菸稅, 香菸消費, 價格彈性, 反菸運動, 菸控
addictive goods, cigarette taxes, cigarette consumption, price elasticity, anti-smoking campaigns, tobacco control

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