2006年3月

如何看待穆斯林社會中政治伊斯蘭的民意支持？複層次迴歸模型的實證分析
How Do We Interpret the Popular Support of Political Islam in the Muslim Societies? A Multilevel Analysis

研究論文 Research Article

黃旻華
Min-hua Huang

119-169

本文藉由八個穆斯林國家的調查資料，來探索政治伊斯蘭在穆斯林世界受到普遍支持的原因。結果發現，在個體層次上，不管就態度或行為層面來說，伊斯蘭信仰確實是政治動員的利器，然而伊斯蘭敎政黨的興起，反應了民眾對於執政者的不滿，因此將伊斯蘭敎政黨的興起全歸因於文明的衝突並不公平。進一步從總體層次來分析，發現國家的經社或政治狀態是影響政冶伊斯蘭民意支持的主因，這意味伊斯蘭信仰不必然代表非理性的意識形態，而可能是另一種政治系統的選擇，也因此，協助穆斯林國家發展健全的治理能力是化解西方與伊斯蘭世界衝突的當務之急。

This article uses the data from the World Value Survey to explore the question of why people support political Islam in Muslim societies. I apply multilevel modeling to test the hypotheses of social psychology, rational evaluation, and modernization theory. The empirical findings suggest: at the individual level, Islam as a religion is indeed a very powerful tool of political mobilization; modernist attitudes also have strong explanatory power; however, the rise of Islamic parties to a large extent reflects the popular dissatisfaction toward the incumbent govern­ment. Therefore, ascribing the support of political Islam to the conflict of civilizations without recognizing people's demand for political responsi­bility is an unfair argument. At the country level, deteriorating socio­economic or political condition is the most powerful factor to explain the support of political Islam. The implication of the multilevel analysis is that the support of political Islam is not necessarily driven by a non­rational ideology and it may represent an alternative choice of political system; nonetheless, as long as the Western world can help the improvement of state governance, the conflict between the West and the Muslim societies can be resolved even if the latter are under the reign of Islamic parties.

政治伊斯蘭, 中東政治, 宗教與政治, 政治文化
political Islam, Middle East politics, religion and politics, political culture

政治學
Political Science

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