2001年6月

WTO架構下兩岸三地經貿受排除條款及直航之影響
The Economic Impact of the Non-Application of MATs and Direct Sailing between Taiwan, China and Hong Kong under the WTO Framework

研究論文 Research Article

翁永和, 許光中, 徐世勳
Yungho Weng, Kung-chung Hsu, Shih-hsun Hsu

169-193

本文以可計算一般均衡全球貿易分析模型 (Global Trade Analysis Project，簡稱GTAP) 及其資料庫為分析工具，探討台灣與大陸成為WTO會員國之後，是否採用排除條款與遵守最惠國待遇所引發之直航問題對兩岸三地經貿之影響。經由模擬結果發現，在WTO的架構下，兩岸入會並相互採用排除條款將讓台灣蒙受損失，對大陸來說則是有利有弊：而開放直航將有利於兩岸經貿，雙方均可獲益。至於對香港而言，兩岸互採排除條款對其有益，而直航則對其有損。

A multi-country, multi-commodity model of GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) is employed to assess the economic impact of the Non-Application of Multilateral Trade Agreements (MATs) and direct sailing between Taiwan, China and Hong Kong under the WTO frame­work. The simulation findings indicate that Taiwan would be harmed, while Hong Kong would benefit from not adopting MATs, whereas the likely impact on China is ambiguous. Although direct sailing would be welfare improving for both Taiwan and China, Hong Kong would suffer the loss.

世貿組織, 兩岸三地, 排除條款, 直航, 可計算一般均衡
WTO, Cross-Strait, Non-Application of MATs, Direct Sailing, CGE

經濟學
Economics

摘要 全文PDF