2008年3月

議題位置、政黨形象、政黨表現與投票選擇的理論化：以台灣2004年立法委員選舉爲例
Making Sense of Issue Position, Party Image, Party Performance, and Voting Choice: A Case Study of Taiwan's 2004 Legislative Election

研究論文 Research Article

蔡佳泓
Chia-hung Tsai

1-24

本研究的目的為探究2004年立法委員選舉行為的決定因素。由於近來兩大政黨陣營發展成形，本文運用巢狀對數勝算模型(nested logit model)在階層狀的投票選擇。主要的假設爲投票選擇決定於選民對政黨的廣泛評價以及在立法院的評價。在一連串的選項特定的變數(alternative-specific variable)之中，政黨的立法院表現被證實對於投票選擇具有關鍵性影響。同時，在獨立／統立議題上的相對立場是一個顯著的變數。此外，政黨支持與對於目前政府的評價亦有作用。本文的發現不僅確認不連續選項的模型，也凸顯政黨在一般民眾心目中的評價與立法院表現的重要性。

The purpose of this study is to investigate the determinants of voting behavior in the 2004 legislative election. Because of the recent develop­ment of two major political camps, this paper applies a nested logit model to highlight the hierarchical structure of choice. The main assump­tion is that voting behavior is determined by a voter's evaluations of parties in general and of the legislative body. Among a string of alterna­tive-specific variables, party performance in the Legislative Yuan and party feeling are found to be crucial to voting choice. The relative dis­tance on the independence/unification issue is also a significant variable, in addition to party support and the evaluation of the current administra­tion. The findings not only confirm the discrete choice model, but also highlight the influence of parties in the mass public and government.

巢狀對數勝算模型, 政黨印象, 立法委員選舉, 議題立場
Nested logit model, Party Image, Legislative election, Issue position

政治學
Political Science

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