1991 / November

匯率自由化與錯向調整：以雙元匯率體制變遷為詮釋
Exchange-rate Liberlization and Misadjustment: A Regime-switch Illustration of the Two-tier Exchange Rates

研究論文 Research Article

頼景昌, 張淑華, 張文雅
Ching-chong Lai, Shu-hwa Chang, Wen-ya Chang

231-276

本文建立一個同時涵蓋單純雙元匯率制度與雙元浮動匯率制度的模型，據以探討，一個實施單純雙元匯率制度的國家，在面臨國際收支持續赤字及外匯存底不斷流失的困境下，政府當局宣佈將於未來某一時刻放棄商業外匯市場的匯率管制，改採雙元浮動匯率制度。在全文的分析中，我們利用幾何圖形作爲輔助工具，詳細地說明，商業匯率自由化的宣告時機及執行時機將如何左右經濟體系的動態調整。

This paper sets up a general macroeconomic framework which is able to describe both ordinary two-tier and float two-tier regimes. The issue this paper concerns is that, a country adopting ordinary two-tier exchange rates suffers from a sustained deficit and gradual depletion of foreign reserves, the authorities thus are forced to announce to give up the control of exchange rate in the commercial foreign exchange market at a future date. More specifically, the problem this paper studies is that the regime is anticipated by the public to switch from ordinary two-tier to float two-tier exchange rates. Using graphical illustration as a supple­mentary instrument, this paper finds that, the timing of announcement and of implementation of the liberlization in the commercial foreign ex­change market play an important role for determining the evolution of economic behavior during the time interval prior to and after regime switch.

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