1995年3月

由經濟觀點看海峽兩岸就統獨意念引發之政治穩定問題
An Economic View on the Political Stability along the Taiwan Strait over the Independence/Unification Issue

研究論文 Research Article

王卓脩
Shu G. Wang

289-324

在本文中我們用一個簡單的國際貿易模型，來探討臺灣地區與大陸在生產面之比較利益、消費傾向、平均國民所得等各方面的不同所可能帶來對海峽兩岸就統獨爭議引發政治情勢變動之可能影響，也推導出兩岸在政治與經濟上欲真正統一整合時所應考慮到的必要條件。雖然本文的模型相當簡單，但仍可由其中推出許多頗契合現實政治情勢的推論來。最後我們也就本文中可加以推廣或有所限制的地方加以說明。

In this paper we use a simple trade model to investigate how differences in Taiwan's and Mainland China's production comparative advantages, attitudes toward consumption and GNPs per capita could possibly affect the political stability along the Taiwan Strait over the issue of independence or unification that faces Taiwanese and Mainland Chinese as well. The results derived here represent necessary conditions for possible economic and political integration. Though the model developed here is very crude, insightful results can still be obtained without much sacrifice on the political realities that we have seen today. Possibility for further extension and limitation of this paper are also discussed.

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