2005年12月

日本眾議院1993及1996年選舉－自民黨之選票流動分析
The Flow of the Vote in Japan between 1993 and 1996 House Elections

研究論文 Research Article

黃紀, 王鼎銘, 郭銘峰
Chi Huang, Ding-ming Wang, Ming-feng Kuo

853-883

民主國家的選舉，選民投票抉擇的「常」與「變」，是攸關各政黨勢力起伏與政黨體系演變的關鍵要素。本文根據日本選舉硏究 (JES) 在1993至1996年所蒐集的定群追蹤資料，分析日本「五五體制」後自民黨面臨多黨競爭下，選民投票穩定與變遷的情形以及其背後的影響因素。研究結果發現，在1993年7月眾院選舉中將票投自民黨的選民當中，約有七成七在1996年10月的眾院選舉時仍穩定地將選票投給了該黨的區域候選人，故儘管自民黨在1996年選舉中有兩成三的選票流失率，但流入率則接近三成五，這對自民黨1996年選後能主導執政，可說助益匪淺。從定群樣本在第40丶41這兩屆眾議員選舉的投票因素來分析，政黨認同對自民黨的選票穩定與變遷有非常顯著的影響。很顯然地，九零年代初雖然日本民眾面臨多黨競爭的環境，但部分選民對自民黨穩定的認同感確實為該黨鞏固了不少的支持票源，再加上由其他政黨轉而認同自民黨者，使自民黨在1996年選舉獲勝。本文分析結果也顯示，居住地區和選民年齡的影響與過去大致相同：都市的選民比較傾向支持非自民黨的候選人，而鄉下農村的選民則是比較傾向支持自民黨：而年紀較大的選民，較有可能投給自民黨。此外，本文還發現在將上述因素都納入考慮後，1996年日本首度採行之單一選區兩票並立制，對大黨自民黨似較爲有利。
 

Electoral stability and change in a modern democracy causes not only the waxing and waning of a particular political party's strength but also the potential realignment of the entire party system. This study, based on the panel data of the Japanese Election Study (JES), analyzes the flow of the vote for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) between 1993 and 1996, when the challenges of multi-party competitions occurred for the first time in Japan since 1955. An exploratory analysis reveals that, of the voters for the LDP in 1993 House election, approximately 77% of them remained loyal to the LDP in 1996. Despite the 23% outflow of votes, the LDP in 1996 attracted 35% vote inflow from non-LDP voters in 1993. It was the combination of a relatively high degree of party loyalty and the higher inflow rate that allowed the LDP to lead the coalition governmentin 1996. More elaborate panel data analyses of fixed effects logit and ran­dom effects probit confirm that, of those factors affecting electoral change in Japan between the 40^th and 41^st House Elections, voters' party identification undoubtedly played a crucial role. In other words, despite the fact that the LDP lost its one-party dominance in the early 1990s, a substantial proportion of its supporters remained loyal. Besides, those who lived in rural areas and older citizens were more likely to vote for the LDP, a pattern consistent with earlier findings in the literature of Japanese voting behavior. After taking into account all these variables, however, we still find that voters were more likely to vote for LDP candi­dates than for other parties in 1996. This seems to indicate that the elec­toral system reform in 1994, which replaced the single nontransferable vote (SNTV) system with a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system, favored the LDP in 1996.

投票穩定與變遷, 選票流動, 選舉制度, 日本自民黨, 定群追蹤資料, 固定效果勝算對數模型, 隨機效果機率單元模型
electoral stability and change, flow of the vote, electoral system, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), panel data, fixed effects logit, random effects probit

政治學
Political Science

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