2006年9月

夢想的代價：區域間人口遷移決策之研究
The Cost of a Dream: The Decision-Making of Interregional Migration

研究論文 Research Article

張慈佳, 胡海豐
Tzu-chia Chang, Hai-feng Hu

417-441

人們為什麼會在區域之間遷移呢？除了由過去相關文獻歸納出的區域間經濟機會差異、寧適性差異，以及個人屬性等影響因素外，本文認為，人們還可能基於非正式制度的因素一追尋夢想—而遷移。且夢想追尋變數與其他影響遷移的變數（如工資、地租等）之間存在抵換效果，本文稱之為「夢想折抵｣，可用以衡量追尋夢想的代價。若將夢想追尋變數納入遷移決策中，將有助於解釋人口遷移與其影響變數之間的落差。本文利用行政院主計處所提供之民國91年的「國內遷徙調查」原始資料，並以高階職務比例做為夢想追尋的替代變數，在巢式羅吉特模型進行估計之後發現，夢想追尋變數對於遷徙機率有顯著的正向影響。此結果顯示，人們的遷移決策確實可能受到此類非正式制度中的文化特性所影響。此外，本文亦利用實證結果進行夢想折抵的估算，發現遷移者願意犧牲0.04％的相對工資，或是多負擔0.07％的相對地租，來換得功成名就的機會。

Why do people migrate across regions? The existing literature has singled out the following factors of importance: interregional economic opportunity differentials, amenity differentials, and individual character­istics. This paper indicates that the individual migration decisions are also affected by one informal institutional factor, that is, dream­-pursuing. And there are some trade-offs between dream-pursuing and other variables of migration. Thus, we could calculate the costs of dream-pursuing, dubbed as dream discount. The relationships among migration and the other variables such as wages or rents would be clear­er by introducing this dream-pursuing factor. Using the data from domes­tic migration survey conducted by the DGBAS of Taiwan in 2002, and treating the share of professional, technical, administrative, managerial, clerical and related workers as a proxy for dream-pursuing, the result of a nested logit model reveals that the dream-pursuing variable has a sig­nificantly positive effect on migration. Furthermore, we calculate dream discount based on the estimates derived from the nested logit model: migrants will accept 0.04% less relative wages, or offer 0.07% more rela­tive rents, in order to get the chances for success.

人口遷移, 夢想追尋, 夢想折抵
migration, dream-pursuing, dream discount

社會學
Sociology

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