2015 / June

再探臺灣的世代政治：交叉分類隨機效應模型的應用，1995–2010
Generational Politics in Taiwan Revisited: Application of a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model, 1995–2010

研究論文 Research Article

林宗弘
Thung-hong Lin

395-436

本文回顧年齡、時期與出生世代（Age-Period-Cohort，簡稱為APC）相關的臺灣世代政治文獻，發現數據資訊不足、測量不一致與多重共線性問題，交叉分類隨機效應模型（cross-classified random effects model，簡稱為 CCREM）可改善之。本文以1995–2010年台灣社會變遷調查數據分析國家認同與民主價值，發現時期效果最強：民眾臺灣認同加強、對統一支持下降、自由民主信念深化；年齡政治效果相對有限，世代政治效果顯著但複雜，與各政治世代的歷史經驗及集體記憶有關，並建議CCREM模型值得推廣應用。

The generational politics studies in have Taiwan seriously suffered from “age-period-cohort (APC) problems,” that is, mixed information, unstandardized measurement, and multi-collinearity problems, which lead to contradictory results. In this article, a Cross-Classified Random Effects Model (CCREM) is applied to mitigate the APC problems. It investigates the APC differences of the preferences on national identities and democratic values using a pooled dataset of national social surveys between 1995 and 2010. According to the CCREM results, the “age effect” shows that the younger age-groups have stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, but the statistical effect is not very significant. On the other hand, the “period effect” shows that after the democratic transition, the whole population has stronger Taiwanese identity and more politically liberal attitudes, and the statistical effect is significant and robust. Finally, the “cohort effect” is more important and complicated than the “age effect”.

年齡, 世代, 時期, 世代政治, 交叉分類隨機效應模型
age, period, cohort, generational politics, cross-classified random effects model (CCREM)

社會學
Sociology

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