1991年11月

創新技術的早期採用：光電技術之分析
The Early Adoption of Innovative Technology: An Analysis of Optoelectronic Technology

研究論文 Research Article

陳忠榮, 楊浩彥
Jong-rong Chen, Hao-yen Yang

277-307

既存文獻對於廠商技術擴散的研究，多以「雙元模型」與「期待模型」來探討廠商間對新技術採用的決定因素以及等待時間的長短。本文旨在對傳統模型應用在創新擴散早期階段的適用性提出質疑。我們以光電技術在傳統工業廠商間擴散的情況爲硏究對象加以驗證，並同時探討光電技術擴散的決定因素。實證結果顯示：廠商成立久暫，成長率，硏究發展活動及資訊爲影響廠商採用光電技術以及等待時間的重要決定因素，而資訊則爲影響決策者計劃採用的唯一因素。模型中的解釋變數對不同狀態之影響有顯著性差異，足以推定傳統模型處理光電技術的早期擴散是值得商榷的。

Studies of technology diffusion have traditionally applied "binary model" and "waiting model" to study the determinants of adoption and the length of waiting time. This paper is aimed at questioning the appro­priateness of applying these traditional models to study the early stage of technology adoption. Instead, "trinomial logit model" and "Tobit model" are used in this study. Empirical results indicate that firm's age, growth rate, R&D activity, and information significantly influence the firm's decision-making on adopting the optoelectronic technology and the length of waiting time, whereas information is the only deteminant for the firm's decision on planning to adoption.

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