本文應用共積理論與誤差修正模型等方法，探討台灣醫療保健支出成長的原因。實證估計結果顯示，平均每人國民所得的成長與健康保險制度被保險人口的增加，是台灣平均每人醫療支出增加的最主要原因。我們的結果有三個特色：（l）醫療支出的所得彈性小於 1 ; (2)所得以外的制度因素（如健康保險制度的擴張），對醫療支出的成長，也有顯著的影響；（3）所得成長與健康保險制度的擴張，已能解釋台灣過去絕大部份醫療支出成長的原因，剩餘未能解釋的部份只佔很小的比例。我們進而推論經濟成長與健康保險制度，將是台灣未來醫療支出持續成長的動力。

This paper investigates the determinants of aggregate health care expenditures in Taiwan, using annual time-series data for the period of 1965-1994. Since all the variables tested were found to be non-stationary in levels, the co-integration and error-correction models were used in the analysis. The empirical results suggest that per capita income and the percentage of population insured are the major determinants of aggregate health care expenditures in Taiwan. The income elasticties of health care expenditures range from 0.3 to 0.4, and the elasticity for the percentage of population insured is about 0.7.