2001年3月

組織內單票制最適配票策略之研究
A Study on Optimal Vote Allocation Strategy within an Organization for Single Voting System

研究論文 Research Article

黃允成
Yun-cheng Huang

1-31

本文針對組織內單票制之投票選舉提出最適配票策略，期使我方派系在既有條件下，達到當選席次極大化之目標。在充分情報下，本文提出賽局理論之 Nash 均衡分析，以找出對我方最有利之配票策略；在不充分情報下，本文提出貝氏參數估計、單邊 Chebyshev 不等式定理及 Overbooking 統計方法，以找出符合要求之最低可當選票數。而在最適配票數已知的條件下，本文提出一數學規劃模型，以期細部配票作業之滿意度達到最大化之目標。最後，本文提出八點結論作爲後續應用及研究之參考。

In this paper, we study how to formulate an optimal votes allocation strategy within an organization. The purpose is to maximize the number of elect for a given party. On sufficient information condition, this paper proposed a Nash equivalent analysis method to determine the optimal votes allocation strategy. On insufficient information condition, we applied Bayes' parameters estimation method, single-side Chebyshev inequality theorem and overbooking method to search for the lowest votes for elect. Given the lowest votes of elect, we formulated a mathe­matical programming model to maximize the satisfaction level of the party members. Finally, eight conclusions are drawn for future studies and applications.

配票策略, Nash 均衡分析, 單邊 Chebyshev 不等式
votes allocation strategy, Nash equivalent, single-side Chebyshev inequality theorem

政治學
Political Science

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